Archive for the ‘Mike Padua’ Category

Storm Signals Lowered, Coast Guard Suspension of Trips Remain, The Classic Conflict and Ten Thousand Stranded in Bicol

January 4, 2009

As of 4:30pm today, Sunday, January 4, 2009 Typhoon ‘Auring’ has changed direction to the North and it will no longer hit land. Consequently, all public storm signals have been lowered except for Eastern Samar.

If there are no storm signals prevailing, normally ferries can set sail. However, for prudence’s sake, the Philippine Coast Guard maintained its suspension of sea travel at 10 points. That will mainly be in Bicol, Eastern Visayas and Caraga region.

Reports say over 10,000 people are stranded in Bicol. I will not be surprised if the total number of people right now reaches 30,000 all over the suspension areas.

I have said in a previous article that it is wave heights that primarily matters and not wind speed [“Two Boat Sinkings, A New Year Ferry Suspension in Bicol, Wave Height and Gale, 01/02/09]. But I checked the PAGASA forecast and there is no mention of wave height! It is Mike Padua’s weather service website ‘’ that has a wave height forecast but it is just near the typhoon’s center.

So nobody knows right now how large the wave will be in the ferries’ routes. Though PAGASA enjoins ships to report meteorological conditions in their specific areas I don’t know if this is heeded. And if heeded I don’t know if PAGASA has a way of consolidating and disseminating it.

This is the borderline area that produces sea accidents. Of course, ship companies would want to sail. In the case of overnight ferries to Cebu if they don’t sail they probably won’t have a ship available for the next night because none arrived. And this throws awry their set schedules.

As I write this it is the time for peak departures of ferries. These departures are usually bunched between 7 to 8pm. I know that they will be trying to break free of the Coast Guard leash and try to sail even by midnight tonight so they can still meet their sked tomorrow. So sometimes this becomes a cat-and-mouse situation. If the seas are rough in their ports, the captains may not turn out bull-headed at all. But if it is calm, he will be at the face of the local Coast Guard commander, who in many cases is not of officer rank. But, of course, he will have no way of knowing how strong are the seas in his route.

The situation points out one problem in the Philippines. Even in Spanish days we have watchtowers who are able to observe local sea conditions. This was reinforced by the Americans. Part of this system are the lighthouses. However, in recent decades the old watchtowers started to crumble and some of the lighthouses are already automated, meaning there is no one manning them.

But the problem is this system is not under PAGASA but under the Coast Guard and it is PAGASA that makes the forecasts. Moreover, many of these lighthouses have no communication to a data collection point. Sayang (a waste), because anyway many of these have cell site coverage. And big ships are anyway sailing but I wonder if reports from them are assidously followed up.

Old England has a system of coast watchers. Don’t we need to emulate it given our long coastline and reliance on the seas?

I will be interested in the further development of this discourse. This is a safety at sea question where people, especially the sailing public, should be interested in.

[photo credit:daylite]

Tropical Depression "Tonyo": A Rare Occurrence

November 14, 2008

It was raining in Davao since last night and it rained the whole day today. This is rare in this place where rains seldom last more than two hours. I was not aware early that a rare weather occurrence is happening, that we are under Typhoon Signal #1.

I do not know of the last time that the provinces of Davao del Sur, North Cotabato, Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur were included in a typhoon signal since these areas never experiences typhoons and where people do not know what is a “bagyo”. To them “bagyo” is just plain heavy rain and they have no understanding that to us what we fear is not the rain but the winds.

At 10am this morning, November 14, PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration) said that Tropical Depression “Tonyo” is located 70 kilometers west of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur, a town in the southern portion of the elongated province. That means “Tonyo” is smack at the middle of Agusan del Sur this morning. This is the first time I heard that a typhoon passed Agusan del Sur, which lies beyond the typhoon belt.

I “hope” the current direction of the typhoon does not change and it does not dissipate soon. For maybe it will be the first in a long, long time that a typhoon will pass by Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Zamboanga del Norte, if ever. Anyway at 45kph “Tonyo” is too weak to do structural damage.

I hope our own Mike Padua, “Mr. Supertyphoon” can clarify what typhoons in history passed by the aforementioned places. People would be interested for sure. Just moments ago a local TV announcer was saying that this is the first time in 30 years that Davao City was under Typhoon Signal #1.

I do remember that in the 70s and 80s two typhoons passed Celebes Sea and one reached Zamboanga City. They were not the typhoons that hook through the mainland Asia and Japan but wayward typhoons of the Southern Hemisphere which normally hooks through New Guinea, Indonesia and Australia.

I have not the time to check but I wonder where this typhoon came from. A rare “visitor” indeed.